Polis Convention 2026: Restraint Defines Real Estate Market

<p>The mood in the German real estate industry remains restrained. Current surveys among industry players show: those planning 2026 with unrestricted optimism are a rarity. At the same time, clear winners and losers are emerging among the different asset classes – a trend that will likely be a topic at industry events such as the Polis Convention.</p><h2>Residential properties remain the clear favorite</h2><p>While many market participants remain cautious about the future, there is little doubt about one asset class: residential properties. According to a recent EY survey, they are in the investment focus of <strong>84 percent of respondents</strong> – with a clear lead over all other segments. Price expectations also show confidence: <strong>76 percent</strong> expect rising prices in prime locations, and <strong>50 percent</strong> also in less sought-after locations.</p><p>In second and third place, logistics real estate (<strong>57 percent</strong>) and food retail (<strong>50 percent</strong>) follow at a considerable distance. In both segments, respondents predominantly expect stable price development. The Colliers outlook for 2026 also confirms: "The sentiment for residential properties will by far be the most positive in 2026," it states – supplemented by the assessment that the good performance figures for hotel properties suggest further momentum.</p><h3>Hotel market shows growth dynamics</h3><p>In fact, the hotel sector is one of the positive exceptions in the current market environment. According to the Colliers outlook, Germany's leading hotel operator B&B Hotels plans to open around <strong>20 new locations with more than 2,000 rooms</strong> in Germany in 2026 – after more than <strong>40 new hotels with 3,700 additional rooms</strong> were added in 2025 alone. The industry's expansion drive is generally strong: according to a SELECT Hotel survey, <strong>74 percent</strong> of operators active in Germany want to continue growing through acquisitions, new lease agreements, and franchise concepts.</p><h2>Office properties in the shadow of restraint</h2><p>The situation is quite different for office properties. Only <strong>39 percent</strong> of market players see this segment as the focus of their investment strategy. Price expectations are accordingly subdued: even in prime locations, only about half of respondents (<strong>51 percent</strong>) expect sideways movement, while beyond that a clear majority of <strong>76 percent</strong> expects falling prices.</p><p>Florian Schwalm, Managing Partner and Europe West Leader Government, Infrastructure & Real Estate at EY-Parthenon and Managing Director of EY Real Estate GmbH, puts the development into perspective: while the negative narrative around office properties has noticeably diminished, restraint in commitments to this segment is expected to remain effective in 2026. However, some investors who had waited for three years are now planning their first steps in this area again.</p><h3>New megatrends are changing priorities</h3><p>Noteworthy is a shift in the market drivers considered decisive: <strong>94 percent</strong> of respondents now cite demographic development as the most important megatrend – a change from previous years, when interest rate development has dominated since the 2023 crisis. Changes in the capital market environment remain an important factor according to <strong>82 percent</strong> of respondents, but are estimated as less relevant for 2026 than political instabilities, regulatory requirements, and digitalization and artificial intelligence.</p><h2>International capital brings Germany back into focus</h2><p>Despite the cautious overall sentiment, Germany remains a central target for international capital in 2026 – in 2025 the location ranked third behind the United Kingdom and the USA. In a European comparison, according to an INREV survey from September 2025, Spain enjoys the best investment momentum, followed by Italy and Germany. Residential use, hotels, retail, and selective logistics are particularly in demand here. In particular, Anglo-Saxon investors and French SCPI vehicles are showing increased activity according to Colliers, as fallen prices provide entry opportunities that are also interesting for opportunistic strategies in German A-cities.</p><h3>Sustainability and digitalization as cross-cutting issues</h3><p>Beyond classical market drivers, structural trends are gaining importance: energy-efficient buildings, renewable energies, and low operating costs increasingly influence investment and purchase decisions. At the same time, digital marketing is becoming standard – virtual viewings, data-driven analyses, and PropTech solutions are noticeably changing work processes in the industry. Artificial intelligence increasingly supports market analyses, property descriptions, and communication with interested parties, without replacing personal consultation.</p><p>This change is also reflected at industry events: in 2026, for example, the Polis Convention starts with the new topic block "polis tomorrow," which specifically focuses on energy, networks, and space, thus addressing the increasing interconnection of urban development, infrastructure, and sustainability.</p><h2>Conclusion and Outlook</h2><p>The real estate industry in 2026 is at a crossroads between structural caution and selective momentum. While residential properties and the hotel sector are sending clear growth signals, the office market remains in the shadow of restraint for now. At the same time, the major drivers of the industry are shifting: demographics, regulation, and digitalization are coming more into focus than pure interest rate issues. For exhibitors and visitors to industry trade fairs such as the Polis Convention, this means: those who want to set impulses in 2026 must consistently consider sustainability, technology, and new use concepts – the course for the next market cycle is being set right now.</p>