Industry Index 2026: Global Uncertainty Weighs on Trade Fair Industry

<p>The consumer goods industry is facing increasing pressure worldwide: geopolitical tensions, trade conflicts and rising costs are significantly changing economic framework conditions. This is shown by the second survey wave of the industry index from IFH COLOGNE and Messe Frankfurt, published in September 2026 – a development that is also not leaving the trade fair industry untouched.</p>

<h2>Shifted stress factors in focus</h2> <p>According to the current survey, the global business climate remains at a cautious level. However, it is striking that the central stress factors for companies have shifted significantly. While other topics were previously in the foreground, three factors are now moving to the centre: global uncertainties, rising production and procurement costs, and tariffs and trade restrictions. According to the study, 68 percent of respondents come from the corresponding survey group of the study.</p> <p>The results are consistent with observations from other industries. The Association of the Chemical Industry (VCI) also reports a tense economic situation in its current member survey. In addition to bureaucracy as the greatest burden, the association explicitly mentions the war in the Persian Gulf as an aggravating factor: raw material costs and chemical precursors have risen by around a quarter on average, while supply bottlenecks and logistics problems are increasing.</p>

<h2>Consumer goods industry between confidence and caution</h2> <p>Despite the noticeable stress factors, the consumer goods industry is not consistently pessimistic. Notably, registration for the upcoming Frankfurt flagship fairs Ambiente, Christmasworld and Creativeworld is at a good level despite difficult global framework conditions. This suggests that international exhibitors and buyers continue to rely on personal exchanges at physical trading platforms – especially in times of economic uncertainty, direct contact with business partners appears to be gaining in importance.</p> <p>This observation can also be confirmed at other trade fair venues. The ILM in Offenbach, which brought together the leather goods, travel luggage and accessories industry from August 29 to 31, is looking ahead to the coming season with confidence despite challenging market conditions. The Cadeaux Leipzig, which took place from September 5 to 7, also recorded stable demand in the lifestyle products and gift items segment with more than 250 exhibitors and brands.</p>

<h2>Trade fair venues respond to changed market conditions</h2> <p>The Frankfurt consumer goods fairs are also responding structurally to the changed international framework conditions. As reported, Ambiente, Christmasworld and Creativeworld are optimizing their international structure to better address increased demands from trade conflicts and cost pressures. Such adjustments can include, for example, more flexible alignment to individual target markets or greater diversification of the exhibitor portfolio.</p> <p>A contrary signal from the trade fair industry comes from Spiel Essen: The consumer fair for board games occupies all eight halls of the Essen fairgrounds from October 22 to 25 for the first time, resulting in an exhibition area of 81,200 square meters – an area record that shows that certain segments of the consumer goods and leisure industry are less affected by global uncertainties than others.</p>

<h2>Conclusion and outlook</h2> <p>The industry index from IFH COLOGNE and Messe Frankfurt provides a differentiated picture: global uncertainties, tariffs and rising costs are increasingly burdening consumer goods companies, without automatically leading to a decline in fair participation. On the contrary – the stable registration level for Ambiente, Christmasworld and Creativeworld, as well as positive signals from ILM, Cadeaux Leipzig and Spiel Essen, suggest that trade fairs are gaining in importance as reliable orientation and order platforms, especially in uncertain times. For the trade fair industry, what will be crucial is how flexibly organizers can adapt to changing geopolitical and economic framework conditions. The upcoming survey waves of the industry index will show whether this trend continues.</p>